Mortgage Loan Officer Attrition: How to Spot the Quiet Exit
About 1 in 7 mortgage loan officers is on pace to leave the industry in 2026. See the warning signs in Model Match data and what happens to their clients.
About 1 in 7 licensed loan officers is on pace to leave the mortgage industry in 2026, roughly 84,000 people. That would be the first increase in the exit rate since 2022. The industry has already lost about 100,000 licensed loan officers, roughly 15%, since the start of 2022. Model Match data shows a consistent pattern: production fades for three or four years, collapses in the final year, and the license lapses at the December renewal.
Right now, about 29,400 loan officers fit that pattern. They closed loans in 2025, have closed nothing in 2026, and still hold an active license. When one of them leaves, their past clients stay put, and mostly nobody calls them.
Our 2027 loan officer outlook covered the license count and who picks up the volume. This post covers the other side: who leaves, how to see it coming, and what happens to the borrowers they leave behind.
How many mortgage loan officers leave each year
The number of licensed loan officers has gone down every year since 2022:
| Year | Change in licensed loan officers | Loan officers lost | Licensed at year end |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | −3.1% | 20,391 | 630,586 |
| 2023 | −5.1% | 32,111 | 598,475 |
| 2024 | −3.0% | 17,864 | 580,611 |
| 2025 | −2.2% | 12,882 | 567,729 |
| 2026 (Jan–Sep) | −3.0% | 17,257 | 550,472 |
| Since January 2022 | −15.4% | 100,505 |
Net change in actively licensed loan officers. 2026 is through September. Source: Model Match data.
2023, the first full year after the refinance boom ended, was the steepest drop. The decline slowed through 2025, and then it sped back up: in the first nine months of 2026, the industry lost more loan officers than in all of 2025.
Those net numbers hide much bigger turnover. Every year, tens of thousands of new loan officers get licensed, and even more leave. Here, “left the industry” means a loan officer’s NMLS ID is no longer active.
| Year | Licensed at start of year | Left the industry | Exit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 650,977 | 100,856 | 15.5% |
| 2023 | 630,586 | 85,251 | 13.5% |
| 2024 | 598,475 | 76,527 | 12.8% |
| 2025 | 580,611 | 71,942 | 12.4% |
| 2026 (Jan–Sep) | 567,729 | 62,405 | 11.0% so far |
Source: Model Match data, pulled October 2026.
The exit rate eased every year from 2022 to 2025. That trend has turned. Exits from January through September 2026 are up 16% on the same months of 2025, 62,405 versus 53,671. If the last three months of the year run 16% ahead of last year too, 2026 finishes with about 84,000 exits, roughly 15% of the licensed base. That’s a projection, but the year to date points that way.
Loan officers who left the industry, by year (thousands)
- 2022 100.9 K
- 2023 85.3 K
- 2024 76.5 K
- 2025 71.9 K
- 2026 (proj.) 84 K Projection. 62,405 exits through September.
Most of the loan officers who leave had already stopped closing
Compare the loan officers who left each year with everyone who held a license that year. The table shows the share of each group that closed at least one loan in that year.
| Year | Loan officers who left | All licensed loan officers |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 31% | 44% |
| 2023 | 19% | 37% |
| 2024 | 14% | 36% |
| 2025 | 14% | 38% |
| 2026 (Jan–Sep) | 13% | 38% |
Share who closed at least one loan in that calendar year (January through September for 2026). Approximate. Source: Model Match data.
In 2025, about 38% of licensed loan officers closed a loan. Among the ones who left, only about 14% did. That means roughly 6 in 7 exits came from people who closed nothing in the year they left. Looking back one more year doesn’t change the picture much: only about 17% of 2025’s exits closed a loan in 2024.
2022 was the exception. When the refinance boom ended, about 31% of the loan officers who left had closed a loan that year, so rising rates pushed out people who were still producing. Since 2023, exits have come mostly from loan officers who had already stopped.
Exits follow the renewal calendar
Licenses renew between November 1 and December 31, and exits track that deadline closely. In a typical month, about 5,000 to 7,000 loan officers leave. Then January hits: 12,235 exits in January 2023, 11,745 in 2024, 11,282 in 2025 and 10,948 in 2026.
The January spike reflects decisions made in November and December. A loan officer with a slow year weighs the cost of another year of licensing and continuing education, and decides not to renew.
The at-risk group: still licensed, no longer closing
We looked for loan officers who show the pattern before the license lapses. 29,399 loan officers closed their last loan in 2025, have closed nothing in 2026, and still hold an active license. They are the most likely non-renewals this December.
Not all of them will leave. A year ago, a similar group was still licensed going into 2025 after closing their last loan in 2024. About 26% of them left by January 2026, and about 30% have left so far. That’s roughly twice the industry’s overall exit rate. Most of the rest still hold a license without closing loans, and about two-thirds of those work at banks or credit unions.
There’s a broader early signal too. Of the 231,976 loan officers who closed a loan in the last 12 months, 39,119, or 16.9%, have closed nothing in the last six months.
About 29,400 loan officers close $20 million or more a year, and together they hold about 61% of the industry’s volume. Almost exactly as many still hold a license but haven’t closed a loan in 2026.
Banks and credit unions are over-represented
| Employer type | At-risk LOs | Share of at-risk group | Share of active 2026 producers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | 13,369 | 45% | 29% |
| Credit unions | 4,345 | 15% | 10% |
| Non-bank lenders and brokers | 11,685 | 40% | 51% |
Source: Model Match data. At-risk group: last closed loan in 2025, no 2026 loans, active license.
Bank and credit union loan officers make up about 1.5 times more of the at-risk group than they do of active producers. Many of them hold a license as part of a broader banking job and close only a few mortgages. Brokers are 7,150 of the group, about 24% overall and 40% of the non-bank segment.
Experience doesn’t protect a thin career
Nearly half of the at-risk group has been in the industry 10 years or more. Many of them closed very few loans in that time.
| Years in the industry | At-risk LOs | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 3 or fewer | 4,697 | 16% |
| 4–9 | 11,006 | 37% |
| 10+ | 13,696 | 47% |
| Lifetime loans closed | At-risk LOs | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 5 or fewer | 11,376 | 39% |
| 6–25 | 7,503 | 26% |
| 26–100 | 5,746 | 20% |
| 101+ | 4,774 | 16% |
One profile stands out. There are 3,321 bank and credit union loan officers in the group with 10 or more years in the industry and 5 or fewer lifetime loans. That combination is 4.6 times more common among the at-risk group than among active producers.
Branch managers rarely show up. They are 2.7% of the at-risk group, compared with 8.3% of active producers.
See who in your market is going quiet
Look up any loan officer's closed-loan volume and recent activity by name or NMLS ID.
The fade: what production looks like before an exit
We took a random sample of 6,000 loan officers from the at-risk group, 2,000 each from banks, credit unions and non-banks, and traced their production back to 2021. The table shows average loans closed per loan officer who closed at least one loan that year.
| Year | Bank | Credit union | Non-bank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18.1 | 36.9 | 39.1 |
| 2022 | 12.6 | 24.9 | 17.1 |
| 2023 | 7.9 | 21.3 | 11.8 |
| 2024 | 6.7 | 19.2 | 10.4 |
| 2025 (final year) | 2.7 | 5.6 | 4.5 |
Random sample of 2,000 at-risk loan officers per lender type. Source: Model Match analysis.
Non-bank loan officers in the at-risk group: average loans closed per year (est.)
- 2021 39.1
- 2022 17.1
- 2023 11.8
- 2024 10.4
- 2025 4.5 Final year. Nothing closed in 2026.
Three things show up across every type of lender:
- The slide starts years earlier. Average production fell 42% to 70% from 2021 to 2023, depending on the type of lender, and kept falling. Taken as a group, these loan officers closed an estimated 397,000 loans in 2021, about 229,000 in 2022 and about 158,000 in 2024.
- The final year is a cliff. Average production fell 57% to 71% from 2024 to 2025 in every segment. The median loan officer closed one loan in their final year at banks, and two at credit unions and non-banks. About 59% of bank loan officers in the group, 46% at credit unions and 45% at non-banks closed exactly one loan in 2025.
- Many were already on and off. In any year from 2021 to 2024, only about 35% to 60% of the group closed a loan at all.
One caution: about 39% of the non-bank loan officers in the group closed their last loan in the fourth quarter of 2025. Some of them may be in a slow stretch rather than gone for good. The December renewal will show which.
Three kinds of loan officers who leave
The at-risk group splits into three profiles, and each leaves something very different behind.
| Profile | At-risk LOs | Who they are | What they leave behind |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occasional bank and credit union originators | 15,611 (53%) | 4+ years in the industry, and nearly half have 13+. About 40% have 5 or fewer lifetime loans. | Small books. Clients usually stay with the bank. |
| Faded non-bank veterans | 9,091 (31%) | 4+ years in the industry, and more than half have 8+. About 6 in 10 have 26+ lifetime loans, and a third have 100+. 35% are brokers. | Real books of past clients that no one is working. |
| New entrants who stalled | 4,697 (16%) | 3 or fewer years in the industry, at any type of lender. About 6 in 10 closed only one or two loans. | Very little. |
The three profiles add up to the full at-risk group of 29,399. Source: Model Match data.
The occasional bank originators are the biggest group, but their exits change little. Their borrowers have a checking account, a branch and a banker at the same institution.
The faded non-bank veterans are where the opportunity is. They are spread across hundreds of companies. About a third of them have closed 100 or more loans in their careers, so together they leave behind hundreds of thousands of past clients. Those homeowners still own their homes, still have equity, and will need a mortgage professional when rates move or life changes.
Exit risk by career size
The same pattern holds across the whole industry. This table shows loan officers who closed a loan in 2024, by career size, and the share who never closed another one.
| Lifetime loans closed | Never closed another loan |
|---|---|
| 10 or fewer | 55.1% |
| 11–50 | 21.3% |
| 51–200 | 12.3% |
| 201+ | 5.4% |
Loan officers who produced in 2024. Source: Model Match analysis.
Share of 2024 producers who never closed another loan, by lifetime loans
- 10 or fewer 55.1 %
- 11–50 21.3 %
- 51–200 12.3 %
- 201+ 5.4 %
A loan officer with 10 or fewer career loans is about 10 times more likely to stop producing than one with more than 200. Across the whole industry, 17% to 23% of producing loan officers close their last-ever loan in any given year from 2022 to 2025. That counts everyone who stops producing, which is a broader group than license exits.
What happens to the borrowers left behind
When a loan officer leaves, most of their past clients stay where they are: same home, same mortgage, and no one checking in.
We took a random sample of 2,000 of the 9,946 loan officers who stopped producing in the first half of 2023 after closing at least 30 loans in their careers. Their books from 2021 to mid-2023 held 193,129 loans, and 96% of those closed in 2021 or 2022. About three years later:
- About two-thirds (66%) have no newer mortgage on the home at all. They still hold the loan their departed loan officer closed.
- About 3.6% refinanced or took a home equity loan or HELOC. With 96% of these books in low-rate 2021 and 2022 mortgages, most borrowers have had little reason to move.
- About 2% sold the home. For the remaining 29%, the records don’t show what happened next.
- About 63% of the borrowers who refinanced went to loan officers in the top 20% by volume, the ones who closed 40 or more loans in 2025.
These books are quiet today because most of the borrowers hold low rates. When rates fall or they need to tap equity, they will go to whoever reaches them first. Today that’s usually a loan officer with the scale and systems to find them, but any loan officer who knows which books just lost their owner can compete for them.
Warning signs to watch
No single signal decides it. The more of these a loan officer shows, the higher the risk:
- No closed loan in the last six months. About 17% of loan officers who closed a loan in the past year have gone six months without another.
- Production down by more than half year over year. The final year almost always looks like a cliff.
- One or two closings in the current year. The median loan officer in the at-risk group closed one or two loans in their final year.
- A thin career. Ten or fewer lifetime loans carries a 55% chance of never closing another.
- A mostly refinance book. Refinance-dependent loan officers have had little to close since rates rose, and the MBA expects refinance volume to fall another 17% in 2027.
- Year-end timing. The decision gets made in November and December. The exit shows up in January.
What to do before the December renewal
If you’re a loan officer:
- Know who’s going quiet in your market. Every exit leaves a book of past clients with no one working it. Market Insights shows loan officer production and activity by company, city and ZIP code.
- Be the name those homeowners know when rates drop. The orphaned borrowers who act go to whoever reaches them first. Build the relationships with the real estate agents and homeowners in those neighborhoods now.
- Watch your own numbers. If you’re seeing two or three of the warning signs above, the time to change course is before renewal, not after.
If you manage a team:
- Review your roster before the December renewal. The signs show up a year or more before a license lapses. Pull production for every loan officer and flag anyone with no closings in six months or production down by half.
- Keep their clients. A loan officer who leaves takes their relationship with them, but the loans stay in your company’s history. Make sure someone owns those borrowers before rates give them a reason to shop. See which past borrowers have already refinanced elsewhere.
If you run a mortgage company:
- Plan for attrition. Expect roughly 12% to 15% of licensed loan officers leaving each year, concentrated among low producers.
- Watch competitors’ rosters. Exits show which companies are shrinking and which markets are opening up before it shows in volume. Our research on loan officers who switch companies shows what that move costs a producer.
How we built this
- Data: Model Match licensing data from October 2021 through September 2026, and Model Match closed-loan production data. Pulled October 2026.
- Exits: a loan officer counts as leaving the industry when their NMLS ID is no longer active. The exit year is the year their last registration ended. “Licensed at start of year” includes everyone with an active registration, including loan officers who close no loans, which is why it is much larger than the roughly 232,000 producing loan officers.
- Closed a loan: the share of each group with at least one originated loan in that calendar year. For the licensed base, it compares everyone who closed a loan that year with the count licensed at the start of the year, so it is an approximation. Exits early in the year, especially January, have little time to close a loan before leaving, which pulls the exit-year share down.
- At-risk group: loan officers who have closed a loan before, closed their last loan in calendar 2025, closed nothing in 2026 and hold an active license. Counts by employer type, experience, lifetime loans, broker and branch manager status are exact.
- Production fade: a random sample of 2,000 loan officers from each lender type in the at-risk group, 6,000 of 29,399 in all. Group loan totals are scaled up from the sample and are estimates. The fourth-quarter share is exact.
- Orphaned borrowers: a random sample of 2,000 of the 9,946 loan officers whose last loan closed in the first half of 2023 and who had at least 30 lifetime loans. Outcomes come from each loan’s current borrower status in Model Match data; about 29% of loans have no recorded status. Where refinanced borrowers went is based on the 282 follow-on loans for the 300 most recent refinanced or equity loans in the sample. The top 20% is loan officers with 40 or more loans in 2025, 19% of 2025 producers.
- Projection: the 2026 exit estimate adds October through December 2025 exits, grown by the 16% year-to-date increase, to the 2026 total through September.
See the exits before they show up in January
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FAQs
How many loan officers leave the mortgage industry each year? Between about 72,000 and 101,000 a year since 2022, or 12% to 16% of licensed loan officers, according to Model Match data. 2026 is on pace for about 84,000 exits, roughly 15% of the licensed base and the first increase in the exit rate since 2022.
When do loan officers usually leave? Exits have spiked every January since 2023, right after the November 1 to December 31 license renewal window. Through the rest of the year, exits run about 5,000 to 7,000 a month. January exits have topped 10,900 in each of the last four years.
Can you predict which loan officers will leave? Mostly, yes. In Model Match data, the strongest signals are a long stretch with no closed loans, production down by more than half year over year, one or two closings in the current year, and a thin career history. Loan officers with 10 or fewer lifetime loans who produced in 2024 had a 55% chance of never closing another loan, compared with about 5% for those with more than 200.
What happens to a loan officer's clients when they leave? Most sit untouched for years. In a Model Match trace of loan officers who stopped producing in early 2023, only about 3.6% of their recent borrowers had refinanced or taken a home equity loan about three years later. When those borrowers did refinance, about 63% went to loan officers in the top 20% by volume.
How many loan officers are at risk of not renewing their license in 2026? Model Match data shows about 29,400 loan officers who closed their last loan in 2025, have closed nothing in 2026, and still hold an active license. They are the most likely non-renewals at the 2026 renewal deadline.